Where in the World Are We Headed?

In 2009, The =mc Global Fundraising Scenarios Project gathered some of the world’s leading experts on fundraising and asked them a simple question: “What will fundraising be like in 2020?”

We gathered the data in three ways:
• We held a series of meetings with regional experts in Washington, D.C.; New York; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Mexico City; Natal, Brazil; London; and Rome.

• We invited more than 100 experts to take part in an online survey identifying the issues they thought were emerging.

• We asked a mix of worldwide fundraising experts — and some emerging gurus to avoid group-think — to write short articles expressing its views on 2020.

Some of this data is on a Web site/wiki we set up at fundraisingscenarios.com; an analysis of this with scenarios will be published in an =mc report in June 2010.

The diversity of answers surprised us. As many people thought online social networking would fizzle out as thought it would take over the world. While many people predicted donors would demand a greater depth of relationship with nonprofits, others thought the donation act would increasingly become an “impulse buy.” Some spoke of the rise of a “super league” of charities able to leverage its greater resource base to become globally dominant. Others predicted that the number of organizations would substantially increase as philanthropy takes root in the global south.

Below are excerpts from a selection of the scenarios. Use them to stimulate your own thinking about the future. How do you think the fundraising landscape will change, and how will you change with it?

Scenario: Tell me again, why do I need you?
“In 2020, more and more of the rising entrepreneurial class, who did not inherit their wealth and are not happy with delegating what they are passionate about to anyone else, will be the donors ‘giving while living.’ They are going to cut the middleman off and negotiate directly with the source, be it in China, India or Indonesia. They will leverage their business and social networks and family contacts on the ground to ensure they have information and input required for addressing a need — be it education, health, sanitation, gender-based support, the arts or the environment.

“Nonprofit organizations and their fundraisers who position themselves as the middleman will lose out as these donors don’t see the value in having the various INGO layers.”
— Usha Menon, director of =mc | Asia
(Author’s note: Usha is recognized as one of very few Asian nonprofit management and fundraising experts with experience and expertise in both fundraising and training with multinational and multicultural exposure.)

Scenario: I support causes, not organizations
“In 2020, people will give for a cause, not to an NGO. This is called ‘zapping.’ They will support a movement, not an institution.

“Older donors will reject those of us who are not genuine! They will stick to a few preferred charities.

“For younger donors, zapping is their motto!!! They do not care who does the work. They want to be connected with the beneficiaries. They hate institutions.

“Donors’ questions for not-for-profits will not be any more difficult than they are already (on success, ethics, etc) — not if they genuinely feel part of a worthwhile movement that is making a real difference.”
— Pierre-Bernard Le Bas, vice president of fundraising, CBM
(Author’s note: Pierre-Bernard has 25 years of fundraising and public relations experience, including head of private sector and public affairs at the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.)

Scenario: Stop bugging me
“By 2020, the widespread availability of mobile phones for NGO communication (and the consequent avalanche of messages from the sector) will create a backlash, leading to a demand for more ways to give anonymously.”
— Richard McPherson, president and creative director, McPherson Associates
(Author’s note: Richard is the author of several books on nonprofit communications and fundraising, including “Digital Giving: How Technology Is Changing Charity.”)

Scenario: Let’s talk (online)
“‘Communication’ is no longer about sending our message out and hoping to get a donation back. It’s about a dialogue, providing a forum for discussion, and being flexible and transparent enough to truly listen to what our online community is telling us. Successful charities in 2020 will need to be comfortable watching as constituents talk about us with each other!

“In 10 years we will still have direct mail, corporate giving and personal, one-on-one major-gift solicitations. However, many of those relationships will start with an organization’s online presence. We will be tested online first before anyone agrees to having lunch or attending an event in person.”
— Kimberley MacKenzie, director of development, Ontario Nature
(Author’s note: Kimberley is the honorary head of fundraising for the Showcase of Fundraising Innovation and Inspiration.)

Scenario: It’s bad to be in the middle
“There will be a dramatic change in the voluntary sector over the next 15 to 20 years as a direct consequence of a dash for market share, mergers and acquisitions, and a significant contracting of the medium-sized charities. Small charities will continue to thrive, and politicians will support them deferentially to the larger charities. Midlevel charities, those between $1 million and $20 million, will find it really difficult to compete. The larger charities will have reduced in number, and mergers will have created super brands. International super-league charities will have emerged from the States, China, India, with the U.N. organizations continuing to be dominant.

High-worth donors will have blossomed, but they will be calling the shots. Mega donations may be more of the norm in developed economies than has been since the millennium, but they will be highly demanding and expect a seat at the board table.”
— Mark Astarita, director of fundraising, British Red Cross
(Author’s note: Mark has been a trustee of the Institute of Fundraising [the U.K. equivalent of the Association of Fundraising Professionals] since February 2008 and has more than 17 years of fundraising experience in the voluntary sector.)

Common themes
Despite a diversity of opinions, some common themes emerged from the experts’ scenarios.
1. Technology will both help and hinder fundraisers. It will help organizations’ relationships with donors through multiple channels, but it also will mean fundraisers will increasingly compete for space and recognition in a more competitive media landscape.
2. Donors will expect increasingly customized communications and relationships, not just with organizations but directly with beneficiaries. This could sound the death knell for organizations that are seen as hindering, rather than facilitating, this close communication.
3. Responsible environmental stewardship will be a key factor by which nonprofits are judged, regardless if they are environmental organizations or not. Many of our experts expect that donors, particularly institutional and foundation donors, will require audited environmental performance reports right alongside audited financials.
4. Philanthropy is poised to grow rapidly in developing countries. We will see the rise of more in-country fundraising, particularly in places like India, China, Brazil and Argentina.