Lapsed or Dormant? Leveraging Statistical Analysis in Fundraising

Based on these donation histories, who is most (and least) likely to contribute in the future? This question can be reframed into a related question: Which of these donors is most likely to be dormant, and which has probably lapsed and will never donate again? Simple summaries (such as recency and frequency) provide some relevant inputs, but they fall far short of offering any specific recommendations. Upon closer inspection, graduate 3 is the most likely to have lapsed, since he donated consistently early on but has gone completely cold since. It is much more difficult to compare the seemingly sporadic pattern of graduate 1 with the “off and on” pattern of graduate 2.